Research overview: forecasting predator attacks and applying risk maps in practice

This overview examines research on forecasting big-cat attacks and translating risk maps into operational decisions, bridging prediction and action. It synthesises work modelling environmental and behavioural hazards to anticipate where and when attacks may occur, and the practical challenge of converting probabilistic forecasts into community warnings, patrol deployment, and husbandry change. The literature discusses analogies with hazard forecasting in other fields, the communication of uncertainty, and the danger of false alarms eroding credibility. The survey frames attack forecasting as an aspirational extension of conflict mapping, promising proactive prevention but requiring careful integration with local knowledge, institutional capacity, and trust to be useful rather than alarming or ignored.