Research overview: theory of change and evaluation in carnivore conflict programs

This overview examines the growing emphasis on theory of change, explicit logic linking activities to intended outcomes, and rigorous evaluation in human-carnivore conflict interventions. It synthesises critiques that many programs deploy fences, compensation, or outreach without testing whether they actually reduce killing or build tolerance, and calls for counterfactual designs, baselines, and measurement of social as well as ecological outcomes. The literature highlights exemplary evaluations, such as comparisons of lion-conservation programs, and the obstacles of confounding, attribution, and short funding cycles. The survey frames evidence-based evaluation as essential to learning what works, arguing that the field must move from intuition and anecdote toward measured, accountable conflict management.