Carrying capacity of large African predators: predictions and tests

Building on the prey-preference series, Hayward, O'Brien and Kerley developed regression models that predict the density a reserve can support for each large African predator from the available biomass of its preferred prey. They validated predicted carrying capacities against observed densities across multiple reserves, finding strong agreement for lions, leopards, cheetahs, hyenas and wild dogs. The approach gives managers a quantitative, prey-based tool to set realistic stocking targets, anticipate when populations will exceed sustainable limits, and plan reintroductions. It also frames competition and intraguild suppression by showing how shared preferred prey constrains the combined predator load a system can carry, making it foundational for small-reserve management in southern Africa.