Estimating site occupancy, colonization, and local extinction when a species is detected imperfectly

This paper extended single-season occupancy modeling into a dynamic, multi-season framework capable of estimating the rates at which sites become colonized or experience local extinction, all while accounting for imperfect detection. By linking occupancy states across years through colonization and extinction parameters, it enables researchers to track range expansion or contraction of species such as recovering or declining wild cats. For long-term camera-trap networks, the dynamic model turns repeated annual deployments into a tool for monitoring distributional change rather than just static occurrence. It clarified how to distinguish genuine turnover from detection noise. The methodology is foundational for assessing how felid distributions respond to habitat change, climate, and management over time.