Ensemble forecasting of species distributions

This paper argued that projections of species distributions under climate change carry large uncertainty arising from the choice of model, climate scenario, and other factors, and that ensemble forecasting, combining many models and scenarios, gives a more honest picture of the range of possible outcomes. Rather than trusting a single projection, the ensemble approach brackets uncertainty and identifies robust conclusions. This framework is widely applied in felid climate research, where projections of habitat loss for snow leopards, tigers, or lynx can vary substantially across methods. It matters because it reshaped how ecologists communicate climate-driven range shifts, encouraging probabilistic, uncertainty-aware projections rather than single deterministic maps of a species' future.